Methodology
War Risk Index methodology
The index reads recent open-news coverage and converts it into a transparent pressure signal. The score is designed for monitoring attention, acceleration, and breadth. It is not a forecast probability and it is not advice.
Signal lenses
Each tracked region is queried against conflict language in the GDELT DOC 2.0 API. The Worker reads a 30-day timeline and a recent article list, then computes four lenses.
| Lens | Weight | Meaning |
|---|
| Coverage intensity | 50% | How much conflict-related coverage appears in the rolling window. |
| Acceleration | 25% | Whether the last seven days are rising against the prior seven days. |
| Source breadth | 15% | How many distinct news domains appear in the article sample. |
| Recency | 10% | Whether the most recent day is above the window average. |
Formula
score = clamp(0, 100,
intensity_lens * 0.50
+ acceleration_lens * 0.25
+ source_breadth_lens * 0.15
+ recency_lens * 0.10
)
Intensity uses a log scale so one large coverage burst does not dominate the whole score. Acceleration is capped to keep a single noisy week from becoming a false crisis marker.
Benchmark context
Why these lenses
ACLED's Conflict Index emphasizes deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and armed-group fragmentation. CFR's tracker emphasizes violence, humanitarian impact, and escalation risk. War Risk Index cannot reproduce those curated datasets in real time, so it uses open-news volume, acceleration, and breadth as a separate early signal.
Limitations
What the index is not
The score can rise because of media attention, major diplomacy, repeated articles about the same event, or language shifts. It can miss local violence in low-coverage environments. It should be read beside primary reports and qualified analysis.
Score bands
| Score | Band | Interpretation |
|---|
| 0-20 | Calm | Low open-news pressure for the tracked query. |
| 21-40 | Watch | Conflict language is present but not broadly accelerating. |
| 41-60 | Warning | Intensity, recency, or source breadth is elevated. |
| 61-80 | High | Several lenses are elevated at the same time. |
| 81-100 | Critical | The signal is unusually concentrated, broad, and fast-moving. |